If there was ever fertile ground for cap and trade in the U.S., now is the time. US BCSD members have said they're interested in information on carbon markets, so we talked to Ecosystem Marketplace carbon analyst Allison Shapiro here in Poznań about the political landscape for cap and trade during the first year of the Obama administration.

"There is general confidence we will end up with a cap and trade scheme nationally and there is an incredible amount of international interest that we will as well," said Shapiro. "Obama has said that a cap and trade scheme is his preferred method of dealing with climate change in the U.S."

While many have predicted it's unlikely any significant climate-related legislation will pass in 2009 due to distractions from the economic crisis, we have to now keep in mind Dobriansky has made an unprecedented commitment to specific GHG cuts and timelines on behalf of the U.S. Probably anyone here in Poznań will affirm change needs to happen now in order to meet cuts like 50 percent by 2050.

"I think something that's key to get legislation through in the first year whether or not we need to establish a cap and trade scheme is to make sure at least we get one major bill there that ties economic growth with environmental protection and with a climate piece," said Shapiro, who predicted we will go from a voluntary carbon market in the U.S. to a mandatory one.

"It's important that the U.S. Congress tries to move in tandem with the negotiations and either exceed or at least meet the targets that are set internationally," she said. "If Congress tries to set targets that are less than what's going on internationally, we could have some problems with the U.S. signing on to a treaty in Copenhagen.”

Yes, but the economy. Yesterday, I spoke with Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, who has been working on climate change issues since the early 1970s and is with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria. I asked "Naki" what he thinks about how the world economic recession will affect climate change negotiations leading up to Copenhagen. He said it could go either way: stimulate or slow down progress.

Naki also said half of the emission cuts needed to reach UN goals, such as 80 percent by 2050 (Obama supports 80 percent), can come from energy efficiency. US BCSD-member company Dow Chemical spoke on an energy efficiency panel with Naki here in Poznań. See this related story on Dow's energy efficiency success story on Environmental Leader .